Modern projects face uncertain budgets, shifting timelines, and complex risks. Monte Carlo simulation provides a powerful way to transform this uncertainty into actionable insight. 

In this seminar, two senior specialists will guide you through the practical steps of building simulations in two classes, interpreting results, and applying them directly in project and business decisions. Some aspects re use of AI will be included.

You will work with both basic coding examples and a professional simulation tool – and you will leave with free code, free exercises, and a two-month trial license. 

There will be time for networking with peers.

Who is this seminar for? 

This event is aimed at professionals who work with business decision making, project management, risks and uncertainties, planning, and budgets – and who want a practical understanding of Monte Carlo simulation:  

• Project, programme and business managers, PMO leads, CFOs 
• Risk managers, planners, cost estimators, controllers 
• People working with bids, insurance, concessions or compliance 
• Decision-makers and anyone responsible for navigating uncertainty 

You do not need extensive mathematical experience – just curiosity and a willingness to explore a hands-on method.    

Why attend? 

You will learn how to:  

• Calculate contingencies and quantify delays and cost overruns 
• Replace single-point estimates with realistic ranges 
• Strengthen your risk assessments with data-driven insights 
• Bridge the gap between traditional risk matrices and modern quantitative methods 
• Build simulations that support budget decisions, controls, and business cases 
• Communicate risks more clearly and avoid perception-driven discussions 

You will receive:  

• Free, ready-to-use Python code examples 
• A two-month free trial of a professional Monte Carlo tool (Blaiser) 
• Exercises you can continue working with after the seminar    

What will we cover? 

Hernan Huwyler 

• Introduction to key Monte Carlo concepts 
• Practical risk-cost estimation 
• Hands-on exercises using simple examples 
• Some aspects of using AI

Morten Aagesen 

• Practical modelling of risk and uncertainty in projects and business processes 
• Building simulations using the Blaiser platform 
• Training exercises with real-world project examples    

Biographies 

Professor Hernan Huwyler, MBA, CPA 

Risk and compliance executive with more than two decades of experience working for multinational companies across Europe and the US.

Specialist in quantitative risk modelling, AI-enabled decision support, and compliance frameworks.

Director of executive education at IE Business and Law Schools – ranked #1 for best online MBA worldwide (Financial Times 2024). He have more than 12.000 followers on LinkedIn.

LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/hernanwyler/ 

Managing Partner Morten Aagesen, MSc Engineering 

Founder and Managing Partner at Decision Risk Analytics.

More than 30 years of experience in the energy sector, including Director and VP roles in asset management, business development, project ownership, and risk analysis at DONG/Ørsted.

Works with modelling, optimisation, and quantitative decision analysis for complex projects and cross-sector value chains.

LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/mortenaagesen 

Programme 

12:00 Networking, sandwich and registration

12:30 Welcome and introduction
12:40 Monte Carlo in practice – Training session (Hernan)
13:00 Break
13:10 Monte Carlo modelling in Blaiser – hands-on session (Morten)
16:00 Coffee and informal networking
16:30 Closing    

Practical information 

IDA Conference, Kalvebod Brygge 31–33, 1780 København V 

Prices:  

• No-shows for physical attendance will be invoiced full price. 

To register, you must be an IDA member or create a user profile.    

Venue & logistics 

Parking

Europark spaces in front of the building.  

• 08:00–17:00: 22 DKK/hour 
• 17:00–24:00: Free 
• 00:00–08:00: 5 DKK/hour
• Bicycle parking available. 

Photography and video

Presentations and networking sessions may be photographed or recorded for IDAchannels.

If you prefer not to appear in these materials, please inform the photographeron the day or contact IDA.