IDA's salary forecast 2026
The most important parameter for salary development is supply and demand. Historically, statistics on salary development show a clear connection between low salary increases and high unemployment and vice versa.
This picture was clearly confirmed in 2023, when IDA members received the highest increase in real income in many years.
Salary developments that year contributed to the recovery of real earnings compared to 2022, when inflation hit salary developments hard.
According to a projection published by IDA in May 2025, there will be a massive shortage of highly educated people with insight into STEM subjects for many years to come. The projection shows that there will be a growing imbalance towards 2040, when the demand in the labour market for engineers and science graduates will exceed the supply of graduates. The imbalance will increase from 7,700 in 2030 to 16,500 in 2035 and further to 20,400 in 2040.
Against this background, it must be assumed that demand for the labour of IDA's members will remain high, even though unemployment is expected to rise slightly for the labour market as a whole in 2026.
How IDA makes the salary forecast
The salary development for privately employed IDA members has been prepared on the basis of the following factors:
- The average of the past three years' salary development according to IDA's Salary Statistics and Industry Denmark's salary statistics for engineers.
- The Economic Council's (DØR) and the ministry of economic affairs' forecasts for salary development and inflation.
- The unemployment rate for engineers etc.
- Assessments of economic growth and uncertainties therein.
Over 80 per cent of the salary adjustments are made in the period from January to August. This means that the statistics largely show the salary increase in the year.
The forecasts regarding salary development and inflation in the table come from DØR's report on the Danish economy. DØR consists of a chairmanship of four independent economists. The members of DØR are representatives of the social partners, the Danish National Bank, the government and interest organisations.
Unemployment
To make the salary forecast, IDA has also looked at unemployment.
In September 2025, the unemployment rate for engineers was 3.4%, while it was 5.9% for MScs. For all IDA members in total, the unemployment rate was 1.9%.
An analysis from IDA's chief economist
'2025 brought nice pay rises for IDA's privately employed members of as much as 5.0 per cent.
This is because, although global uncertainty and large-scale redundancies have attracted attention, the Danish economy is actually doing really well, with employment continuing to impress.
We expect this positive trend to continue next year, when we anticipate that salaries will grow by 4.3 per cent for privately employed members.
Given that inflation is expected to land at 1%, there are prospects for a nice increase in real earnings next year as well. The low inflation is not only due to lower underlying price pressure, but also to a number of tax cuts, including the electricity tax.
Our expectation of lower salary growth in 2026 than this year is due to the economy losing some of its momentum. Next year, exports are not expected to drive the same growth, as global economic growth is also expected to slow down – and we cannot ignore the fact that higher tariffs in the US will also have an impact.
However, private consumption is expected to rise in Denmark, which means that the upturn in the labour market is expected to continue – but at a slightly slower pace than in previous years.
So even though the global economy is experiencing somewhat higher volatility now compared to a few years ago, the Danish economy remains both robust and healthy, with no significant imbalances. IDA's members represent a level of expertise that continues to be in high demand – not least in sectors such as IT, life sciences, green transition and the defence industry.
This cocktail has overshadowed the uncertainty we are seeing in the world right now, and we expect it to also have an impact on salary developments next year.
Looking at salary developments in the public sector, these will be decided in the upcoming collective bargaining negotiations. Here, we expect that the generally positive economic trends will also benefit public sector employees.'