Climate neutrality requires massive investments in new technology

It is essential that we accelerate the development of new technologies if Denmark is to become a climate-neutral society by 2045 at the latest. The report, IDA’s Climate Response 2045, therefore recommends that policymakers invest in a range of immature but promising technologies.

Today, the Danish Society of Engineers (IDA) and researchers from Aalborg University present Denmark’s first comprehensive and fully modelled roadmap to climate neutrality by 2045 in the energy and transport sectors. The report makes it clear that action is needed now.

“We are moving the goalposts and emphasising that new technologies should not be critical to achieving Denmark’s climate targets for 2030. On the other hand, substantial investment must be made now if we are to have any chance of becoming fully climate-neutral by 2045,” says Thomas Damkjær Petersen, President of the Danish Society of Engineers, IDA.

In contrast to the government's controversial plans to rely on still-maturing technologies to achieve Denmark’s 70% emissions reduction target by 2030 through the so-called “hockey stick model”, IDA’s Climate Response 2045 argues that new technologies should primarily be viewed as tools for achieving full climate neutrality by 2045.

Among other initiatives, the report highlights large-scale hydrogen facilities and intelligent charging of electric vehicles as key measures that should be implemented. Under the report’s proposals, Denmark would achieve climate neutrality, including emissions associated with Denmark’s share of international aviation and maritime transport, within the framework of a sustainable use of biomass.

“Technological development requires time and resources. The longer we wait, the less time we will have to develop and select the right solutions. The risk is that we become dependent on suboptimal approaches, such as capturing CO₂ without being able to make use of it,” says Thomas Damkjær Petersen.
Carbon capture plays a central role in the report. However, up until 2030, priority should be given to circular solutions in which captured CO₂ is reused to produce green fuels. Efforts should focus on ensuring that as much captured CO₂ as possible is used to replace polluting fuels in aviation and other forms of heavy transport through Power-to-X technologies. This, in turn, will place even greater demands on the expansion of renewable electricity generation from both offshore and onshore sources.

Only in the longer term may it become necessary to accept the end-of-pipe solution of storing captured CO₂. If that becomes the case, it will be crucial to involve the public in decisions about where such storage facilities should be located.

“We need to put the hockey stick model behind us. Our calculations show that well-established technologies can deliver the 2030 target of reducing Denmark’s emissions by 70%, but only if policymakers, among other things, significantly accelerate the electrification of the transport sector. It is important not to place too many expectations on technological breakthroughs before 2030, because these are precisely the solutions we will need most in the years that follow. We must invest in their development now if Denmark is to become a global frontrunner after 2030 and succeed in becoming fully climate-neutral,” says Henrik Lund, Professor of Energy Planning at Aalborg University and one of the lead authors of the 2045 report.
The report also stresses that the climate neutrality target for 2050 set out in Denmark’s Climate Act is too late, given that the world has not yet managed to reverse the overall trend in greenhouse gas emissions.

IDA’s Climate Response 2045 requires investments of DKK 500–600 billion over the next nine years up to 2030, and a further DKK 600–700 billion between 2030 and 2045. The calculations show that, if the transition is implemented in the most technically effective way, it can be achieved without significant socioeconomic costs, as the investment costs will largely be offset by reduced expenditure on fossil fuels.

Key recommendations from IDA’s Climate Response 2045

• Reduce reliance on imported biomass and biomass combustion. Denmark should develop and test new biomass technologies for producing green transport fuels.
• Accelerate the electrification of the transport sector, including heavy transport. Establish electric roads (e-roads) for lorries, allowing them to charge while driving.
• Make a significant investment in Power-to-X technologies, including large-scale electrolysis and electrofuels. This should be combined with carbon capture, which is a key technology for both carbon capture and utilisation (CCU) and carbon capture and storage (CCS).
• Continue the large-scale expansion of wind power capacity, increasing from the current approximately 6 GW to 11 GW by 2030 and around 19 GW by 2045.
• Address Denmark’s share of emissions from international aviation and maritime transport.