Ortwin Renn

Coping with Uncertainty and Ambiguity: The concept of systemic risks and its contribution to risk management and communication

In recent years, the entire globe has been exposed to a number of serious crises. Risk researchers call them polycrises (Homer-Dixon et al. 2021; Homer-Dixon and Rockström 2022; Lawrence et al. 2024). First came Corona, then came the further manifestations of climate change, for example floods, draughts and forest fires, the war in Ukraine, food crises in the world, inflation, galloping energy prices, more serious and intensive natural disasters, and there are more every day. The hallmark of polycrises is the mutual amplification of nested, interconnected risks. 
Each and every crisis - whether political, epidemiological, military, economic or environmental - forces society to redefine and reshape its everyday understanding of what is normal and what can be expected in the near future. This juxtaposition of crises shows that we are dealing with a complex web of superficially different but in reality deeply interwoven crises (Lawrence et al. 2022; 2024). And it is precisely because these crises are so causally and functionally interwoven that they cause damage worldwide that is far greater than the sum of their individual damages.
These insidious risks that threaten people's welfare worldwide can be evidenced by the term systemic risks (Renn et al. 2020; 2019 Renn 2021; Liu and Renn 2025).  The cause-and-effect models that have been common up to now are less and less effective in a world that is characterized by systemic interactions between allegedly independent risk sources. For this reason, everyday phenomena in nature, technology and society can only be understood if they are viewed as dynamic processes in complex systems. Most of these systemic risks have become more severe, disruptive, and dangerous than in previous decades. Risk research has referred to this as risk amplification. (Kasperson et al. 1988) And in most cases, the likelihood and magnitude of these risks are also increasing more rapidly now than in the past. Their analysis requires interdisciplinary scholarship, systemic concepts and methodologies and in particular inclusive forms of risk governance (IRGC 2018). 

      The keynote will address the multiple challenges by the high degree of uncertainty and ambiguity associated with systemic risks and emphasize the need for a comprehensive systemic understanding of the interactions between social, natural, technological and cultural hazards and domains. It will explore the potential merits of a systemic risk approach and explain the management requirements that are associated with this concept. It will also address the need for unvarnished comprehensible communication that addresses the conflicting goals and describe pathways of how to involve stakeholders and affected population in weighing conflicting goals and to search for common solutions without wasting precious time.

References:
Homer-Dixon, Thomas and Johan Rockström, Johan (2022): What Happens When a Cascade of Crises Collide?’The New York Times, November 13.

IRGC - International Risk Governance Center (2018): IRGC Guidelines for the Governance of Systemic Risks. Lausanne: EPFL: International Risk Governance Center

Kasperson, Roger E.; Renn, Ortwin; Slovic, Paul; Brown, Halina. S.; Emel, Jody; Goble, Robert; Kasperson, Jeanne X. and Ratick, Samuel (1988): The Social Amplification of Risk. A Conceptual Framework, Risk Analysis, 8 (2): 177-187

Lawrence, Michael; Janzwood, Scott and Homer-Dixon, Thomas (2022): What Is a Global Polycrisis? And How Is It Different from a Systemic Risk? Discussion Paper 2022-4. Version 2.0. Cascade Institute.

Lawrence, Michael; Homer-Dixon, Thomas;, Janzwood, Scott; Rockstöm, Johan, Renn, Ortwin and Donges, Jonathan (2024): Global Polycrisis: The Causal Mechanisms of Crisis Entanglement. Global Sustainability, 1: 1-36. doi:10.1017/sus.2024.1

Liu, Huan and Renn, Ortwin (2025): Polycrisis and Systemic Risks: Assessment, Governance and Communication. International Journal for Disaster Risk Science, 2; online version

Renn, Ortwin (2021): New challenges for risk analysts: systemic risks. Journal of Risk Research, 2, https://doi.org/10.1080/13669877.2020.1779787

Renn, Ortwin.; Laubichler, Manfred; Lucas, Klaus; Schanze, Joachim; Scholz, Roland and Schweizer, Pia-Johanna (2020): Systemic Risks from Different Perspectives. Risk Analysis, 42 (9): 1902-1920 

Renn, Ortwin, Klaus Lucas, Armin Haas, and Carlo Jaeger (2019): ‘Things Are Different Today: The Challenge of Global Systemic Risks’. Journal of Risk Research 22 (4):401–15. doi: 10.1080/13669877.2017.1409252.

About the speaker:

Prof. Ortwin Renn is a social scientist focusing on risk governance. He retired as scientific director at the International Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS) in Potsdam (Germany) in 2023 and serves as a professor emeritus for environmental sociology and technology assessment at the University of Stuttgart. He directs the non-profit company DIALOGIK, a research institute for the investigation of communication and participation processes. Until his retirement, Renn served as Adjunct Professor for “Integrated Risk Analysis” at Stavanger University (Norway), Honorary Professor at the Technical University Munich and Affiliate Professor for “Risk Governance” at Beijing Normal University. His research interests include risk governance (analysis, perception, communication), stakeholder and public involvement in environmental decision making, transformation processes in economics, politics and society and sustainable development.

Ortwin Renn has a doctoral degree in social psychology from the University of Cologne. His career includes teaching and research positions at Clark University (Worcester, USA), the Swiss Institute of Technology (Zuerich) and the Center of Technology Assessment (Stuttgart). His honours include the National Cross of Merit Order, honorary doctorates from the Swiss Institute of Technology and the Midsweden University, the “Outstanding Research Award” of the Society for Integrated Disaster and Risk Management (IDRiM) and the “Distinguished Achievement Award” of the Society for Risk Analysis (SRA). In 2019, he was awarded the Order of Merit from the State of Baden-Württemberg for special achievements in scientific policy advice.  

Renn is a member of the German National Academy of Sciences “Leopoldina”, the Berlin-Brandenburg Academy of Sciences (Berlin), and of the Board of Directors of the German National Academy of Technology and Engineering (Acatech). He chairs the sustainability platform of the German State of Brandenburg in which ca 170 sustainability initiatives are organized. In 2011 he served on the Ethics Commission "The Future of Energy" appointed by Chancellor Angela Merkel. Until 2014, he was a member of the "Science and Technology Advisory Council", an advisory body for EU Commission’s President Jose Manuel Barroso. 

Renn has published more than 30 monographs and over 250 peer reviewed articles. His most prominent English publication is the book “Risk Governance. Coping with Uncertainty in a Complex World (London: Earthscan 2008).