Roger Padullés

Why short payback thinking delays industrial electrification and how smarter planning can cut costs and avoid lock-in.

Electrification of industrial process heat is key to decarbonization. For applications below 300 °C, heat pumps can provide a viable and more efficient alternative to electric boilers. However, investment decisions are often driven by short payback-period requirements, delaying action and leading to technology lock-in. This study compares conventional investment strategies with cost-optimal electrification pathways to 2050 under uncertainty in energy prices, CO2 costs, and grid emissions using Monte Carlo simulation. Applied to a 4.8 MW milk spray dryer, optimal planning reduces cumulative costs from 37.1 M€ to 24.9 M€, highlighting the value of risk-informed decision-making.

About the speaker:

My name is Roger Padullés, and I am a postdoctoral researcher at DTU, working on high-temperature heat pump integration for industrial decarbonization. This work was carried out in collaboration with Jasper Walden at DTU as part of the SuPrHeat project.

Track: Symposium